SPCX NEUTRAL · 4h

Rationale

1. Bottom line: NEUTRAL. The RR>2 survivors split in opposite directions - ICT short (2.2, sell the 130-137 bounce) vs Divergence long (2.6, bounce off the 122 sweep). Macro/news lean short, but the only near-term long exploits deep oversold (1h RSI 25) at a fresh all-time low with zero support base - low quality. Split + thin-history low conviction → stand aside.
2. Fresh-IPO risk frame: IPO 6/12 ($135) -> 225.64 spike (6/16) -> now -45%, broke IPO price 7/15, fresh all-time low 7/16. With only 24 trading days, the daily EMA200, full Elliott and Wyckoff phases are unreliable. Below 122 is an air pocket with no support data.
3. Supply overhang + binary events: Q2 earnings ~8/6 coincide with the first ~20% lockup unlock (a large supply release imminent). Starship Flight 13 ~7/16 (outcome unconfirmed). Valuation debate (~45x 2026 EV/Rev, IPO priced rich at $1.7-1.8T). All short-leaning catalysts, but near-term is oversold.
4. Plan (stand aside): flat. (1) rejection of 130-137 -> short (T1 122, T2 113); (2) reclaim 137 -> bounce (145-153); (3) break 120.8 -> downside accelerates. It's a falling knife - size minimally even after a trigger.

Invalidation

감시 트리거: ①130~137 반등 거부+4h 종가 130 하회 → 숏(T1 122, T2 113, 손절 138, RR 2.2), ②4h 종가 137 상향(구조 돌파) → 바운스 롱(145~153), ③4h 종가 120.8 하회 → 사상 최저·BB하단 소멸(하락 가속). 확정 전 무포지션.

Context

관망(신규 IPO·얇은 히스토리·낙하하는 칼). SPCX=SpaceX, 나스닥 상장 ~24거래일뿐. 현재 123.99, -5.43%, IPO가($135) 하회하며 사상 최저 122.12 갱신. 히스토리가 없어 상위 TF 구조(EMA200·와이코프·엘리어트)는 신뢰 불가 — 지지 기반 없는 하락. RR>2 생존은 정반대 2개(ICT 숏 2.2 vs 다이버전스 롱 2.6)로 분열. 130~137 반등 거부=숏, 137 상향 회복=바운스, 120.8 하회=지지 소멸.