SNDK NEUTRAL · 4h

Rationale

1. Bottom line: NEUTRAL (pullback-long lean). The RR>2 survivors are both LONG (Wyckoff 2.13, Divergence 2.56), a long tilt - but the strongest reads (Elliott, daily momentum) still point down and the flush isn't reclaimed. With SK Hynix earnings 7/22 four days out, any long is a bet on an external print. Per the 3-way rule: stand aside.
2. Structure is a violent markdown at a tentative low: 1952->1325 (-30%), daily RSI 38, MACD hist -78 (still bearish). The huge-volume 1325 flush (19.6M/30.9M) is a selling-climax signature but no secondary test / spring confirmed. The 1h bullish RSI divergence (25.8->30.5) is only a short-term bounce signal.
3. Macro is bullish but binary-heavy: NAND supercycle (Q3 rev +251% to $5.9B, EPS $23.41, $11B supply deals, GS PT $2,200). The 7/16 TSMC capex shock cut it ~8%. SK Hynix 7/22 (NAND ASP +50% QoQ expected) is the sector binary; SNDK's own print is 8/5. As a 2025 spin-off, its daily EMA200 is unreliable.
4. Plan (stand aside): flat. (1) reclaim 1485 + clear 7/22 -> long (T1 1615); (2) close below 1277 -> downside resumes (1150, 970). No entry before the binary; take the pullback-long only on confirmation.

Invalidation

감시 트리거: 4h·일봉 종가 1485 회복(1h 스윙고+BB하단 되돌림) AND 7/22 SK하이닉스 부정 쇼크 아님 → 롱 무장(T1 1615, T2 1690, 손절 1270). 1277 하회 종가 → 하락 재개(1150·970 개방). 7/22 실적 전엔 무포지션.

Context

관망(반등 롱 편향, 일봉 하락추세 미확인). 샌디스크 현재가 1354는 1952 고점→30% 급락 후 1325 플러시 지지 구간. 기술 4법 중 롱 2개만 RR>2 생존(와이코프 2.13·다이버전스 2.56), ICT(1.97)·엘리어트 폐기. 그러나 일봉 모멘텀은 여전히 하락(MACD 히스토 확대)이고 7/22 SK하이닉스 실적 이진 이벤트가 4일 앞이라 방향 유보. 1485 상향 회복=롱 무장, 1277 하회=마크다운 재개.