SKHYNIX NEUTRAL · 4h

Rationale

1. Bottom line: NEUTRAL. Of the four technical methods, only the ICT short (RR 2.55) clears the RR filter, and that lone short collides head-on with the structural HBM-leader bull case and the 7/22 Q2 earnings binary 4 days out. Per the 3-way rule: a single survivor + technical-vs-event conflict + forced confidence ≤45 → stand aside. Betting on the earnings-gap direction at a possible selling-climax low is poor risk.
2. Fresh macro shock: on 7/16 the Bank of Korea delivered a unanimous surprise +25bp hike (first in 3.5yr, to 2.75%, signaling 3% by year-end); with the TSMC capex shock (GM -3-4% dilution) it drove KOSPI -6.37% and SK Hynix -11.53%. Markets were closed 7/17 and reopened today. A structural tightening cycle is an index headwind.
3. Structure is a tentative low after a plunge: -38% from the 2,987k ATH (7/6); the 7/16 high-volume (10.4M) flush low is 1,678k. Today it is attempting a secondary test at 1,821k-1,842k, but no spring/SOS confirmed. The long-term bull (56.4% HBM share, HBM4 mass production Q3, ~70% of Nvidia's Rubin HBM4) is intact, but the near-term binary dominates.
4. Plan (stand aside): flat. 7/22 earnings are the gatekeeper - (1) miss + rejection of 1,949k-2,010k -> short (T1 1,700k); (2) beat + reclaim of 2,080k -> long (T1 2,300k); (3) break of 1,678k -> downside resumes. Nvidia earnings are 8/26, so no US catalyst rescues the tape before then.

Invalidation

감시 트리거(7/22 실적 후): ①실적 미달+1,949k~2,010k 반등 약세 → 숏(T1 1,700k, T2 1,560k, 손절 2,090k, RR 2.55), ②실적 상회+2,080k 상향 회복(SOS) → 롱(T1 2,300k, 손절 1,821k 아래), ③1,678k 하회 종가 → 저점 무효·하락 재개. 7/22 실적 전엔 무포지션.

Context

관망(단일 숏 생존 vs 구조적 강세+7/22 실적 이진). SK하이닉스(000660) 현재가 1,842,000원, 오늘 -11.53%. 7/16 한국은행 깜짝 +25bp(2.75%)+TSMC capex 쇼크로 급락. 기술 4법 중 ICT 숏(RR 2.55, 1,949k~2,010k 반등 매도)만 RR>2 생존, 와이코프·엘리어트·다이버전스 폐기. 이 단일 숏이 HBM 대장 구조적 강세와 정면충돌하고 7/22 Q2 실적 이진이 4일 앞이라 방향 유보. 1,678k(7/16 플러시 저점)가 핵심 피벗 — 하회 시 1,557k 개방.