MU NEUTRAL · 4h

Rationale

1. Bottom line: NEUTRAL. Technicals lean short (ICT 2.07, Wyckoff 2.47 survive RR>2, both selling the 895-930 bounce), but this collides head-on with a confirmed bullish macro (sold-out HBM supercycle). On top of that, SK Hynix Q2 earnings on 7/22 are a binary event 4 days out. Per the 3-way rule: technical-vs-macro conflict + imminent binary + forced confidence ≤45 → stand aside.
2. Structure is distribution / early markdown: topped at 1255 (bearish RSI divergence), now 848 below most daily EMAs, RSI 41. Bounced off 804 (7/16 low) but failed near 903. Not a confirmed reversal; liquidity below 804 is the next short target.
3. Macro is bullish but binary risk dominates: FY2026 HBM sold out, ~$33.5B Q3 guide, 81% GM - fundamentals are solid. But the 7/16 TSMC capex shock ($60-64B, peak-margin fear) sank the sector, and 7/22 SK Hynix earnings are a two-way bomb (miss = sector drop, beat = gap up). Micron's own print is 9/29, so until then it trades on the sector tape.
4. Plan (stand aside): flat. (1) 7/22 SK Hynix weakness + rejection of 895-930 -> short (stop 960, T1 804); (2) reclaim 960 -> long (T1 991-1035); (3) close below 804 -> momentum short. No overnight into the binary.

Invalidation

감시 트리거: 7/22 SK하이닉스 실적으로 섹터 약세 확인 후 895~930 반등 거부 시 숏(손절 960, T1 804, T2 750, RR≈2.3). 960 상향 회복=롱 전환(991~1035 개방). 804 하회 종가=마크다운 재개. 7/22 실적 전엔 무포지션.

Context

관망(기술 숏 vs 매크로 롱 정면충돌). 마이크론 현재가 848.95는 1255 고점→804 조정 후 반등 실패 구간. 기술 4법 중 숏 2개만 RR>2 생존(ICT 2.07·와이코프 2.47, 둘 다 895~930 반등 매도), 엘리어트(1.91)·다이버전스 폐기. 그러나 HBM 매진 슈퍼사이클이라는 강한 강세 매크로와 정면충돌하고 7/22 SK하이닉스 Q2 실적(섹터 이진 이벤트)이 4일 앞이라 방향 유보. 804 하회=모멘텀 숏, 960 상향 회복=강세 전환.