KORU NEUTRAL · 4h

Rationale

1. Bottom line: neutral / stand aside (pullback-long lean). Three technical methods (ICT, Wyckoff, Divergence) point long, but at 18.19 all fail with RR<1 (chasing into 20-22 resistance); they survive only on a pullback into 16.4-17.2 (RR 2.27-2.81). On top of that, macro carries a fresh shock plus a binary event, so we withhold direction.
2. Fresh macro shock: on 7/16 the Bank of Korea delivered a surprise +25bp hike (first in 3+ years, to 2.75%) which, combined with semiconductor margin fear, drove KOSPI -6.37% and SK Hynix -11.53%. KORU (3x Korea bull) plunged then is bouncing from 15.49. Korea markets were closed 7/17; the 7/20 reopen carries gap risk.
3. The structural bull case holds but near-term binary risk dominates: KOSPI YTD +96%, Goldman 12m target 9,000, HBM4 sold out - but the BoK tightening cycle is a multi-quarter headwind, and SK Hynix Q2 earnings on 7/22 are a decisive binary (a beat gaps 7/20 up, a miss deepens the rout). Volatility is too extreme to fix a direction now.
4. Plan (stand aside): flat. (1) after the 7/20 reopen and 7/22 SK Hynix print, a pullback hold at 16.4-17.2 -> small long (T1 20.44); (2) a close below 15.49 -> discard the long, downside resumes. As a 3x ETF, holding overnight into the events is excessive risk.

Invalidation

감시 트리거: 눌림 16.4~17.2 지지 매수(이벤트 통과 후) / 4h·일봉 종가 15.49 하회=하락 재개(롱 폐기). 7/20 개장 갭·7/22 SK하이닉스 실적 확인 전엔 무포지션.

Context

관망(눌림롱 편향, 이벤트 리스크 큼). 기술은 15.49 캐피튤레이션 저점 반등으로 롱 우세(ICT·와이코프·다이버전스)나 현재가 18.19에선 20~22 저항 추격이라 RR 미달. 눌림 감시존 16.4~17.2에서만 RR 2.27~2.81. 단 7/20 개장 갭·7/22 SK하이닉스 Q2 실적이라는 이벤트 이진 리스크가 커서 방향 유보.