ETH NEUTRAL · 4h

Rationale

1. Bottom line: neutral / stand aside (bearish lean). Only one RR>2 view survives - Wyckoff short (2.09); ICT (1.77), Elliott (1.80) and Divergence (1.52) are discarded. No majority and macro is also a no-trade, so we withhold direction - but since the surviving view and the macro flow both lean bearish, we mark it 'bearish-lean stand-aside'.
2. Structure is a lower-high retrace: the 1,839 tick is a corrective bounce, not a revalidated pullback-long, and the 4h holds its CHoCH/SOW. 1h bullish divergence vs HTF bearish leaves Divergence neutral. Current price is not an entry but a spot to await a rejection of 1,852-1,862.
3. Macro is the clearest risk-off of the three: spot ETH ETFs posted net outflows on both 7/16 and 7/17 (Grayscale ETH -$14.3M/day), re-extending the outflow trend - the opposite of BTC's 3-day inflow. Neither scenario clears 2:1 RR at T1, so macro is a mandatory no-trade. The only regime-flip catalyst is Morgan Stanley's MSSE staking ETF (0.14%, amended S-1 7/14, approval flagged 'close').
4. Plan (stand aside): flat. (1) rejection of 1,852-1,862 -> re-evaluate short (T1 1,785, RR 2.09); (2) close above 1,882-1,885 -> flip long; (3) break of 1,785 -> downside continuation (1,745). MSSE approval and the 7/29 FOMC decide direction.

Invalidation

감시 트리거: 반등 1,852~1,862 거부=숏 재평가 / 1,882~1,885 상향 종가(CHoCH)=숏 사망·롱 전환 / 1,785 하회 종가=하락 지속. 확정 전엔 무포지션.

Context

관망(약세 편향). 1,839 반등은 되돌림 로어하이지 눌림롱 재확인이 아니다. 기술 4법 중 와이코프 숏(RR 2.09)만 겨우 생존, ICT 1.77·엘리어트 1.80·다이버전스 1.52 폐기. 감시존 1,852~1,862(4h OB) 거부=숏 재평가(T1 1,785). 1,882~1,885 상향 종가=롱 전환. 1,785 하회=하락 지속(1,745).