SNDK LONG · 4h
| Entry | 1360~1400 |
|---|---|
| Stop | 1330 |
| Target | 1490 / 1560 |
| R:R | 2.20 |
| Confidence | 46% |
Rationale
- Three technical methods clear RR>2 and all are long (a bounce): ICT (RR 2.2, discount reaction after the 1,347 SSL sweep), Wyckoff (RR 2.18, a 14.8M-volume capitulation = SC candidate into an AR toward 1,500) and Divergence (RR 2.22, 4h regular bullish divergence + a 15m MACD flip). The Elliott wave-5/C short has no room into support and is discarded at RR 1.4. The 1,360-1,400 zone is the shared buy area.
- Honest structural read - this is an oversold bounce, not a trend change. 1d/12h are a confirmed downtrend with price below every EMA, and this is a mean-reversion long from extreme oversold (1h RSI 16.9, 4h RSI 23.6). Below 1,325 all three long theses die.
- Fundamentals are a structural but narrow tailwind: NAND contract prices +70-75% QoQ in Q2 (outpacing DRAM's +58-63%), Kioxia's 2026 output fully committed, Goldman pegs the global NAND deficit at 4.2% (worst in 15 years). But SNDK is pure-play NAND and doesn't capture the HBM/DRAM premium that lifts SK Hynix or Micron. The near-term tape is risk-off (semis 'sold the news' on TSMC's beat; SNDK -12.6% on 7/15), which conflicts.
- Plan: buy the 1,360-1,400 bounce (price 1,356 sits just below the zone floor - enter only on a reclaim of 1,360) / stop 1,330 / T1 1,490, T2 1,560, RR 2.20. Volatility into the 8/5 earnings - size small, conditional, scale out at T1.
Invalidation
1h/일봉 종가 1,325 하회 시 롱 무효(반등 소멸·하락추세 재개)
Context
1,488~1,490(12h EMA200)이 반등의 1차 저항·확인선 — 되찾아야 T2 1,560 개방. 1,347(SSL)이 하방 피벗, 1,325 하회 시 반등 소멸·마크다운 재개. 토큰화 피드 스케일이라 레벨은 피드 내 자기정합