KORU LONG · 4h
| Entry | 18~18.4 |
|---|---|
| Stop | 17.7 |
| Target | 19.7 / 20.5 |
| R:R | 3.00 |
| Confidence | 50% |
Rationale
- All four technical methods clear RR>2 and all are long: ICT (RR 4.29; 17.91/17.99 SSL sweep + 15m EMA20 reclaim), Wyckoff (RR 2.64; a 17.91 SC candidate on 1.29M volume, though no SOS yet), Elliott (RR 4.89; 5-wave decline complete into an ABC bounce) and Divergence (RR 4.29; HTF-aligned regular bullish divergence on 1d+1h). The 18.0-18.4 zone is the shared entry.
- Macro tailwind (neutral-to-supportive): on the TSMC day KOSPI +6.24% (7,284), SK Hynix ADR +27%, and record EWY inflows. Confirmed SK Hynix HBM4 supply to Nvidia's Vera Rubin (+30% pricing) is a structural tailwind, and a firmer KRW (~1,480 USD/KRW) helps modestly. The macro long scenario also comes in at RR 3.0, agreeing with technicals.
- But there is no bullish divergence on the 12h, so this is an oversold bounce, not a trend change. Price 18.6 is above the top of the 18.0-18.4 entry zone - don't chase; wait for an SSL-sweep dip. Confidence capped at 50 (1D downtrend intact).
- Plan: buy the 18.0-18.4 support / stop 17.7 / T1 19.7, T2 20.5, RR 3.00. It's 3x leveraged, so scale out near T1 and minimize overnight exposure. Don't get greedy into 20.5-21.0 resistance.
Invalidation
일봉 종가 17.85 하회 시 롱 무효(SSL 재이탈·하락추세 재개)
Context
19.7 회복·수용 시 반등이 21.0까지 확장. 18.0~18.4(SSL 스윕 17.91/17.99+15m EMA20 되찾음)이 공통 매수존. 17.85 하회 시 하락 재개(엘리어트 대안 숏). 20:1 액면분할 보정 데이터 기준