ETH LONG · 4h
| Entry | 1830~1850 |
|---|---|
| Stop | 1806 |
| Target | 1912 / 1948 |
| R:R | 2.12 |
| Confidence | 52% |
Rationale
- Rare in this batch - all four technical methods clear RR>2 and all are long: ICT (RR 2.01, discount/OTE 1,830-1,855), Wyckoff (RR 2.03, re-accumulation ST), Elliott (RR 2.6, wave-iv buy) and Divergence (RR 2.9, 1h+15m regular bullish divergence). The 1,830-1,850 discount is the shared zone; Elliott and Divergence carry the cleaner edge.
- Macro is risk-off, but ETH-specific tailwinds are real: on 7/15 Morgan Stanley filed a staking ETH ETF (MSSE, 0.14% fee, staking rewards passed to holders) - a structural demand catalyst BTC lacks right now. Robinhood Chain (an Ethereum L2) does $1B+ daily (ETH gas demand), and ETH ETFs turned +$66M over 7 days after an 8-week outflow streak.
- Price 1,864 sits just under 4h EMA20 (1,867) resistance - don't chase; wait for a tag of the 1,830-1,850 discount. 1h/15m are a counter-trend bounce versus higher timeframes, so confidence is capped at 52 (a pullback-buy, not a trend change).
- Plan: buy the 1,830-1,850 pullback / stop 1,806 / T1 1,912, T2 1,948 (BSL), RR 2.12. ETH follows BTC, so a BTC break below 63,200 risks dragging it down - hedge and size small.
Invalidation
4h/12h 종가 1,806 하회 시 롱 무효(4파 바닥+와이코프 수요 이탈)
Context
4h EMA20 1,867 되찾으면 상방 트리거(→1,900·1,948 BSL). 1,830~1,850(디스카운트+4h EMA50 1,828+와이코프 ST+엘리어트 4파)이 공통 매수존. 1,806 하회 시 구조 붕괴