BTC SHORT · 4h

Rationale

1. Bottom line: SHORT (downtrend continuation). Every RR>2-surviving view aligns one way - 3 technicals (ICT 2.40, Wyckoff 2.12, Elliott 2.45) plus the macro short (58%): majority consensus with no conflict. Divergence is discarded (only a nascent, unconfirmed oversold tick on 1h/15m, no HTF alignment). Direction is clearly short, but the ENTRY is conditional.
2. Structure is fully bearish across TFs: this morning's 63,200 spring FAILED, flipping to a Sign-of-Weakness; 12h MACD hist bear-crossed to -77; 4h broke structure losing 63,827/63,855. 1d EMA20<50<200 full bear stack with 1d MACD hist (+279) fading. Markdown resumed off the 65,596 UTAD.
3. Macro aligns short (note the 'short-term relief'): June CPI -0.4% (biggest 6-year drop) flipped the 7/29 FOMC from 46.5% hike to ~90% hold, but that relief is temporary - September FOMC hike odds are ~51%, risk merely deferred. The 7/16 semiconductor margin shock (SMH -4%) plus Iran-US tension (oil $79-84) reignited risk-off, with BTC co-selling with semis. Spot ETFs are structurally weak (YTD -$5.8B).
4. Plan (short, conditional): do NOT chase 62,938. (1) bounce into 63,300-63,510 -> execute short (stop 63,960, T1 61,802, T2 61,280); (2) 4h close reclaiming 63,960-64,150 -> cancel the short, stay flat. The 7/29 FOMC hold is anti-climactic; the September hike tail risk is the downside catalyst.

Invalidation

숏 무효: 4h 종가 63,960~64,150 회복(EMA군집 탈환)=하락 논리 사망·반등 대안. 하방 확인: 61,802 하회 시 61,280·59,900 개방. 진입 트리거: 반등 63,300~63,510 도달 시 숏 실행.

Context

숏은 진입 조건부. 현재가 62,938은 1h RSI 29.5·15m 28.8 과매도라 추격 금지. 반등이 감시존 63,300~63,510(깨진 63,200 스프링 재테스트+4h EMA군집 63,660~64,015+ICT OTE)에 도달할 때만 숏 트리거. T1 61,802(SSL), T2 61,280. 4h 종가로 63,960~64,150 회복 시 숏 무효(반등 대안).