BTC LONG · 4h
| Entry | 63600~63800 |
|---|---|
| Stop | 63200 |
| Target | 64730 / 65596 |
| R:R | 2.06 |
| Confidence | 48% |
Rationale
- Technically a pullback-buy edge - all three methods clearing the 2:1 RR filter are long: Wyckoff (RR 3.79; 61,802 spring plus a heavy demand candle, Phase C/D re-accumulation), Divergence (RR 3.27; 1h regular bullish divergence, RSI 35.8->41.5) and ICT (RR 2.81; bounce after an SSL sweep). Elliott is discarded (RR 0.95) - wave 4 (63,856) overlaps the wave-1 top (64,731), a rule-4 violation.
- Conflict warning - macro is the opposite headwind: risk-off has resumed, the post-CPI (June 3.5%) bounce faded immediately, and the 7/29 FOMC hike probability jumped to 46.5% (Iran blockade / oil). Spot BTC ETFs saw -$8.2B over eight weeks. This strong macro headwind clashes with the technical long, cutting confidence to 48.
- Price 63,856 is not an entry (do not chase). The drop pressed into 63,600-63,800 support rather than breaking it, so buy only on a retest / SSL sweep back into that zone. 1h/15m still carry downside momentum, so a low must confirm first.
- Plan: buy the 63,600-63,800 pullback / stop 63,200 / T1 64,730, T2 65,596, RR 2.06. If the FOMC hike materializes this long's invalidation risk rises, so size small and conditional, and minimize overnight exposure into 7/29.
Invalidation
4h 종가 63,200 하회 시 롱 무효(와이코프 스프링·HTF 상승구조 붕괴)
Context
4h EMA200 63,673이 생사 피벗. 63,600~63,800(4h EMA밀집+와이코프 크릭+1h 강세 다이버전스)이 유일한 RR>2 롱 진입존. 63,200 하회 시 스프링 붕괴로 롱 폐기, 65,596 상방 수용 시 T2 개방