AAPL LONG · 4h
| Entry | 328~330 |
|---|---|
| Stop | 324 |
| Target | 340 / 350 |
| R:R | 2.20 |
| Confidence | 56% |
Rationale
- Three technical longs clear RR>2, all buying the 328-330 dip: ICT (RR 2.45, OTE/FVG dip), Wyckoff (RR 2.2, Phase D markup backup) and Elliott (RR 2.4, late wave-5 buy of the wave-4 dip). Only Divergence is short (RR 2.78, 1h+15m regular bearish), but it's a non-HTF-aligned tactical mean-revert, so its near-term path (335->328) actually agrees with the three longs.
- Macro is a clear long tailwind (conf 60): a fresh July record at $327, +20% YTD, nearing a $5T cap. AAPL is decoupling from the semiconductor risk-off, Citi raised its target to $365 on 7/13, and China generative-AI regulatory approval is a catalyst. Cash-flow defensiveness makes it relatively less rate-sensitive.
- But every method flags extreme overbought (4h RSI 84.9). The best edge is buying the 328-330 retrace, not chasing the 335 ATH. Price 335 is not an entry - wait for the dip. Confidence capped at 56 (overbought pullback risk).
- Plan: buy the 328-330 pullback / stop 324 / T1 340, T2 350, RR 2.20. Volatility may expand into Apple Q3 earnings on 7/30 - scale out at T1. Trail on a strong close accepted above 336.81.
Invalidation
4h 종가 324 하회 시 롱 무효(OB·엘리어트 4파 저점 이탈)
Context
328~330(4h EMA20 자석+FVG/OB+OTE)이 공통 매수존. 336.81~338.2(ATH·직전 스윙고)가 1차 저항·유동성 — 이 위 수용 시 350 개방. 324 하회 시 OB·4파 저점 붕괴로 롱 무효