SOXL SHORT · 4h
| Entry | 174~182 |
|---|---|
| Stop | 186 |
| Target | 160 / 148 |
| R:R | 2.25 |
| Confidence | 48% |
Rationale
- Fully bearish stack on every timeframe: on 1d/12h/4h/1h/15m price sits below the EMA20/50(200) with an LH/LL structure. Three technical methods (ICT, Wyckoff, Elliott) favor the short.
- The crux of the 2:1 RR rule: at 158, price is a deep discount just above the SSL (147.82), so a market short is RR<2 and discarded - stand aside. Only a retest short, selling a bounce back into 174-183 (OB/OTE), survives at RR 2.25.
- TSMC's beat (revenue +36% YoY, AI 66%) sparked a same-day semi risk-on bounce - and that bounce creates the entry. Structurally, though, it is a retrace to resistance, not a trend change (158 is far below the 1d EMA20 at 193).
- Plan: sell the 174-182 bounce / stop 186 / T1 160, T2 148, RR 2.25. Price 158.27 is wait-for-entry (needs a bounce) - do not chase the short. If it sweeps 150.11 and reclaims 158.3, the daily bullish-divergence long (RR 2.34) is the alternative.
Invalidation
4h 종가 186 상방 시 숏 무효(반등이 저항대 상단 돌파)
Context
174~183(4h OB·OTE) 반등 저항대에서만 매도. 190~192(BSL) 상방 수용 시 하락구조 무효·추세전환