ETH LONG · 4h
| Entry | 1840~1875 |
|---|---|
| Stop | 1806 |
| Target | 1980 / 2050 |
| R:R | 2.38 |
| Confidence | 60% |
Rationale
- The strongest consensus in this batch - all four technical methods clear RR>2 and three are long: ICT long (RR 3.73), Wyckoff long (RR 2.69; 1504 SC to 1712 spring to Phase D SOS) and an Elliott wave-4 long (RR 3.17). The 1,836-1,866 discount is the shared buy zone.
- Macro/flow support the long: on 7/14 every ETH spot ETF fund saw zero outflows (a first), with BlackRock leading +$96M on the week; ETH/BTC at 0.0297 is +11% over 7 days, and Robinhood Chain (an Ethereum L2) is doing $800M+ daily, creating direct ETH demand.
- TSMC-driven tech risk-on plus June CPI at 3.5% and a softer DXY are a tailwind for risk assets broadly. The 1d/12h/4h EMAs are in bullish order (4h cleanest), so trend also points up.
- Plan: buy the 1,840-1,875 pullback / stop 1,806 / T1 1,980, T2 2,050, RR 2.38. Price 1,906 is overbought (12h RSI 70) - don't chase, wait for the retrace. The divergence short (RR 2.73) is a 1,947.77 liquidity-sweep-then-back-to-1,837 scenario, so it doesn't conflict with the long.
Invalidation
4h 종가 1,778 하회 시 롱 무효(상승구조 붕괴)
Context
1,947.77(BSL·직전 스윙고)이 1차 저항·유동성. 이 위 수용 시 2,050 개방 / 1,836(디스카운트·4h 수요)이 핵심 지지