BTC LONG · 4h
| Entry | 63000~63700 |
|---|---|
| Stop | 61600 |
| Target | 67000 / 68500 |
| R:R | 2.09 |
| Confidence | 52% |
Rationale
- The RR-2:1-surviving perspectives converge long: of the four technical methods only the Wyckoff long (RR 2.73) passes (ICT 1.63 and Elliott 1.90 discarded), and macro also adopts a 63,500-64,000 pullback long (RR 2.81). The 62,900-63,700 zone (4h FVG + OTE + Wyckoff creek) is the shared buy area.
- Sentiment/flow bottoming signals: Fear & Greed at 23 (extreme fear, contrarian), long-term holders +74,054 BTC over 30 days and whales accumulating ~270k BTC, and spot ETFs reversing from -$425M on 7/13 to +$181M on 7/14. Funding at 0.0078% shows no overheating.
- TSMC's earnings beat (revenue +36% YoY, AI 66%) flipped semis/tech to risk-on, a near-term tailwind via the tech-crypto correlation. June CPI at 3.5% and a softer DXY also help.
- Plan: buy the 62,900-63,700 pullback / stop 61,600 / T1 67,000, T2 68,500, RR 2.09. Price 64,194 is premium - do not chase, wait for the dip. A divergence short (RR 2.90) survives on the other side, so treat this as range-bound.
Invalidation
4h 종가 61,600 하회 시 롱 무효(61,802 스프링·SSL 이탈)
Context
65,596(직전 스윙고·BSL) 돌파·수용 시 추세 롱 강화 / 아래 거부 시 레인지 상단. 하방 63,000 이탈 시 61,802 스프링 재시험